The obvious but difficult short-term solution is for some kind of international military force to establish a haven for relief efforts by knocking out Serbian artillery positions on the hills overlooking Sarajevo and its airport. This should have been a European matter, but the European Community still lacks the political will to implement a common foreign policy. That means non-European nations will likely have to take part under U.N. auspices. Under the most likely contingency plan, specially trained American crews at Ramstein Air Base, south of Bonn (map, page 43), would airlift supplies into the region. The Canadians, backed by the French, would lead the security contingent on the ground. At present, there are no plans for Americans to participate in ground action securing the airport. But U.S. fighter planes from NATO bases in Europe or the Sixth Fleet-would have to lead the assault if bombing were required.
Will it happen? Pressure is growing on Bush from many quarters. “What does it mean to be the last superpower if you won’t use that power?” a senior Egyptian diplomat says in frustration. “Rome would not have hesitated.”
But Washington is not imperial Rome, and Bosnia is not oil-rich Kuwait. George Bush is experiencing the same inhibitions that have restrained American presidents since Vietnam. He is loath to put American lives at risk in an open-ended enterprise in which American interests aren’t directly at stake. Bush knows that even if the United States insists that it is supporting a strictly “humanitarian” operation, in the eyes of the Serbs certainly, America would be taking sides in a centuries-old blood feud. And there could be hell to pay. “This isn’t a quick in-and-out operation like Desert Storm; there’s no single army to confront and defeat,” says a Bush official. “This is another Vietnam or Beirut easy to get in, damn hard to get out. The American people have no taste for that.”
The Pentagon shares Bush’s distaste for the venture-as Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell apparently made clear at a White House meeting last Friday afternoon. But on Friday evening, U.N. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali angrily gave the Serbs 48 hours to honor a cease-fire so relief flights could begin–or face “other means.”
For a reluctant George Bush, there was also the political calculation. Intervention would seem compassionate and highlight his foreign-policy skills. But given the fact that even Desert Storm didn’t permanently ensure his presidential fortunes, the downside is considerable. If Bush does act, he’ll do so without any illusions about the risks–military or political.
